Rugby’s plan for cracking America is dividing the sport

Special report: Leading unions sceptical about World Rugby’s focus on – and investment in – growing game in US ahead of 2031 World Cup there

The election of the next chair of World Rugby in November has brought into sharp focus the question that is set to dominate the global game’s agenda for much of the next decade – how do you crack America?
We have been here before. There have already been a number of unsuccessful attempts to tap into the vast riches of the US sports market, yet, so far, nothing has stuck.
Premiership Rugby’s last foray ended with the humiliating spectacle of just 6,000 fans turning up to see Newcastle Falcons play Saracens in Philadelphia in 2017. It came just a year after the Premiership had heralded a ‘landmark’ agreement with NBC for coverage of the league in America and launched their new US strategy, with the first Premiership game to be played on foreign soil when London Irish hosted Saracens at the Red Bull Arena in New Jersey. They have not been back since.
The international game has fared slightly better, at least in terms of profile and attendances, most notably when Ireland defeated New Zealand for the first time in their history in Chicago in 2016, while the All Blacks played Fiji at the Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego in July this year.
Encouragingly the game attracted a sell-out crowd of 33,000, over a third more than the 20,000 that Manchester United attracted for its pre-season friendly against Real Betis in August. Scotland also attracted a sell-out crowd of 17,000 for their game against the US Eagles in Washington in July.
Yet if the exhibitions served to provide each nation the opportunity to raise the profile of their sporting brand and capture data of exile fans, the concern within some leading unions is that they have failed to move the needle in a ferociously competitive market that is currently increasingly being dominated by the NFL, with even the NBA and MLB being squeezed.
Significantly, there have been concerns raised within the larger unions about the commercial and strategic rationale for World Rugby’s decision to host the men’s 2031 World Cup in the US – doubts that are being accentuated by the political machinations for the November election.
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Broadly speaking, the concerns are three-fold. The most prevalent one is questioning whether the investment required to improve the performance of the US Eagles, who currently languish in 19th place in the world rankings, behind the likes of Samoa, Portugal, Tonga, Uruguay and Spain, will be throwing good money after bad. Others say that even with a concerted high-performance programme in place, time is running out. Nothing will turn off the TV audience in the US more quickly, it is said, than if their national side are humiliated at their own tournament.
Then there is the question of legacy. Even if the tournament itself is a success, is there any hope that it will leave a lasting footprint, having seen football fail to crack the market, despite high-profile signings of foreign talent for their domestic leagues, from George Best to David Beckham.
The leading candidates to become the next chair, Scotland’s John Jeffrey and Australia’s Brett Robinson, are both serving members of the executive board, which signed off the 10-year US plan, and are both supporting the strategy. But significantly Jeffrey’s manifesto stated that he understood “the concerns that some hold over the risk and reward” and promised “a detailed review of all the information in relation to the Americas Growth Plan aligned to Men’s Rugby World Cup 2031 and projected return on investment,” if elected.
Robinson has also promised to deliver “financial sustainability across all member unions amid a rising cost base and wage inflation” and prudent execution of the next phase of World Rugby’s global growth agenda.”
Yet sources say that the US strategy is likely to come under greater scrutiny by Abdel Benazzi, the former captain of France, who is also standing for the chair. The electioneering has led to pledges to cut costs at a time when national unions are struggling financially. Sceptics suggest that hosting the 2031 World Cup in an established market, such as the UK, would deliver a strong commercial return and timely pay day for the unions without any of the risk of the US drive.
The uncertainty over the direction the new chair will take the governing body in is only adding to these concerns.
Supporters of the US plan, however, point out that similar concerns were voiced ahead of Japan hosting the 2019 World Cup, and yet it delivered a surplus of £350 million and a lasting legacy, most notably in the financial strength of their domestic league, even if the national side is currently in a rebuilding phase.
With rugby’s global economy currently reliant on the UK and French markets to generate 60 per cent of the revenue, it is seen as critical to expand the sport into the US to ensure long-term growth beyond incremental growth of returning to an already saturated market.
It is said that if rugby gains just one per cent of the sports rights market in the US, it would double rugby’s global economy, and there already exist rugby endowment funds in the University of California in Berkeley which are probably more financially significant than many unions.
The forecast return for the 2031 World Cup is a surplus of £800 million, compared to the £470 million generated in France and World Rugby plan to link countries with host cities in the build-up to the 2031 tournament, with the European sides likely to be based on the east coast, for example Scotland playing in Washington DC this summer, with the All Blacks likely to be based in the west coast where there is a significant Polynesian community. That is seen as critical not for just engaging with the local community but also providing long-term commercial and sponsorship opportunities.
With currently ⁠800,000 players and 3,100 clubs in the US, which is a similar playing population as the UK, World Rugby has taken ownership of the MLR club Anthem Carolina with the view to creating a pathway for USA qualified players while 27 universities currently have a funded rugby programme.
The women’s game is also seen as having potential for major growth, following the US bronze medal in the Olympic sevens’ tournament which prompted businesswoman and investor Michele Kang to donate $4 million to the team’s programme, while their star player Ilona Maher has a huge social media presence and celebrity status in America. The US is due to host the women’s World Cup in 2033.
Still, even the moderate voices are calling for a renewed focus on the strategy. Simon Massie-Taylor, the Premiership Rugby chief executive, believes it is more that the next phase of the US growth plan should involve collaboration between the clubs and the international game.
Premiership Rugby have just signed a three-year extension with Chicago-based US insurance company Gallagher, and there is an ambition to stage high-profile games in America in the next five years.
“It’s still early stages, but we want to be able to join things up so it’s not just the Prem strategy,” said Massie-Taylor. “It is to fit in generally with the roadmap in the building up to 2031 [the World Cup], and then afterwards, and what our role is within it?
“It’s helpful that we have a very good relationship with World Rugby and Gallagher have a financial interest in them as well. So we need to align those really. It is important that we have some presence there [in the US].
“When you look at future club investors, I think it would be great to have US sports franchise-style investors coming into the Premiership.”
Christopher Mead, the chief marketing officer of Gallagher, which also sponsors several sports franchises in the US, including the Chicago Cubs, as well being an official partner of World Rugby’s women’s programme, said rugby’s values as a sport would be attractive to the US market and audience.
“I think you’re starting to see what we believe in is rugby as a global game, and the ethics that surround rugby being cutting through sport and transcending sport, and how the Gallagher Premiership showcases that commitment to ethics and communities is really important to us, and that comes through to the United States and it is going to grow.
“I think there are people all over the world who understand the value of both investing in sport and the long game, and those are the people we need to attract, whether they sit somewhere in England, or whether they sit somewhere else around the world.
“We want to grow this game. We want more participants and more supporters. But we, you know, we’re really committed to the heart of rugby, and we welcome as many people that want to invest in this game, whether it’s from a partnership perspective, or an ownership perspective, or a kit perspective, or kit manufacturing perspective to make it safer and better. We want everyone to come in.”
Mark Robinson, the chief executive of New Zealand Rugby Union, said that it was critical to maximise the remaining time with a major coordinated drive to ensure that the US growth strategy succeeds, including staging more fixtures in the US.
“It is a huge market, and entering into it is only going to be really successful if a number of countries and competitions want to be part of providing the solution to those challenges,” said Robinson.
“I think there is a sense that as the World Cup gets closer, we need to work a lot harder and more quickly. We are concerned there hasn’t been as much progress as there might have been.
“In the very near future we need to get the appropriate unions and club competitions that are interested in thinking about how we map the next six to eight years. We need the appropriate people in the room to come together and look at all the challenges and opportunities.”
The brainstorming could result in the Premiership and Super Rugby playing high-profile fixtures in the US, while more internationals are expected to be staged there. There are already plans for Ireland and the All Blacks to repeat their Chicago fixture next year, while England are expected to play in the US ahead of their tour of Argentina next summer, and a Nations Championship final could be staged there in 2030.
Whether the combined efforts will be enough to crack America remains to be seen. But what is certain is that for the US project to have any chance of succeeding, it cannot be distracted by short-term political machinations.